Decision Journal : Calibrate

Most people never find out if their judgment is any good. They make the call, the outcome happens, and the two never get compared. Calibrate closes that loop. HOW IT WORKS Log a call — "I'll get a good night's sleep tonight," "this deal closes by Friday" — and attach a real number: how confident are you, honestly? Not a wild guess. A percentage you'd bet on. When the outcome is known, come back and grade it: right or wrong. That's it. Over weeks, Calibrate shows you the one thing that actually measures judgment — not whether you were right this time, but whether your 70% calls come true 70% of the time. Most people are overconfident on the calls that feel obvious and underconfident on the ones that don't. You won't know which until you track it. THE TOOLKIT Five decision frameworks for when a call is hard to think through clearly: Pros & Cons — lay both sides out side by side 10-10-10 —…