Norya: Aurora Forecast Alert

Is tonight worth going out for? That is the only question. Norya answers it with a score out of 100, computed for your exact position and for the hour ahead. Not a raw Kp index you have to interpret: an answer. Where does the number come from? From five measurements, crossed. Auroral activity, through NOAA's OVATION model. The sky directly above you: three cloud layers, visibility, rain. Real darkness, from how far the Sun has set. The Moon, its phase and height, which erase a weak aurora. And the solar wind, averaged over thirty minutes. What if Norya doesn't know? It says so. No weather data, no score: not zero, not a neutral value, because zero would mean "no chance", which is not the same as "I don't have the data". When two models disagree, confidence drops rather than the score rising. When should you go out? The home screen gives the best window to the hour, the three factors…