Prior Odds Hunt

Prior Odds Hunt is a probability reasoning game built on Bayes' theorem — the rule that governs how rational belief updates when new evidence arrives. A glowing semicircular gauge fills the screen. It shows a probability: how likely something is, right now, given what you know. Evidence arrives one clue at a time. Before each reveal, you predict whether the clue will push the probability up or down. Then the numbers appear. The gauge sweeps to its new position. The calculation shows every step of the arithmetic. The key insight the game teaches is not the formula — it is the likelihood ratio. Every piece of evidence can be summarised as a single number: how much more likely is this clue if the hypothesis is true versus if it is false? A likelihood ratio of eight means the evidence is eight times more common in sick patients than healthy ones. A ratio of 0.46 means the absence of a…